Most retirement calculators are built on a lie. They use "average returns"—usually a smooth 7% or 8% per year. But the market doesn't work in averages. It works in sequences. And if you retired in 1929, the sequence was a death sentence for most portfolios.
If you had retired in September 1929, you were about to face the most challenging period in market history. It wasn't just the initial crash; it was the "bleed" that followed. By mid-1932, the S&P 500 had fallen 89% from its peak. If you were withdrawing money to live on during those three years, you were selling shares at 90% discounts just to buy groceries.
The 1% Difference
We ran the actual historical numbers through our engine. Starting with $100,000 in a 60/40 portfolio (60% stocks, 40% bonds):
The 5% Result: If you withdrew $5,000 a year (inflation-adjusted), your portfolio barely limped to the finish line. After 30 years, you had just **$904** left. You survived, but you spent three decades in a state of constant financial terror.
The 6% Result: If you had tried to withdraw just 1% more—$6,000 a year—you would have run out of money entirely by **Year 24**. You would have been 89 years old and destitute.
Why 1929 Was a Portfolio Killer
It wasn't just the size of the crash; it was the duration. The market didn't return to its 1929 peak until 1954. That is **25 years** of waiting to break even. For a retiree drawing down their capital, there is no "waiting it out." You are cannibalizing your future every single month.
Lessons for Today
- Early Years Matter Most: Your success is determined by the first 5-10 years of retirement. A bad start creates a hole you can never climb out of.
- Averages are Fantasy: A 30-year average return of 7% is meaningless if you lose 40% in Year 1.
- Cash Buffers Save Lives: Having 2-3 years of expenses in cash allows you to stop selling shares during a crash, giving your growth assets time to recover.
Test Your Own "1929 Scenario"
You can't control when you retire, but you can control your risk. Our Advanced Calculator lets you run your exact super balance and withdrawal needs through 98 years of real market data.
Don't guess with "average" numbers. See exactly how your plan would have handled the Great Depression, the 1970s stagflation, and the GFC.
Stress-Test Your Retirement
Run your plan against every historical market crash since 1928. Know your real probability of success before you quit your job.
Run Historical BacktestDisclaimer: This is educational information, not financial advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. SuperCalc Pro does not hold an AFSL. Always consult a licensed financial adviser before making retirement decisions.