Free retirement simulation tool for Australians
Monte Carlo Retirement Calculator Australia
Test your retirement plan against 98 years of real Australian and global market data. See your probability of success, worst-case scenarios, and how sequence of returns risk affects your income in retirement.
Built on 1928-2025 historical data. Includes super, Age Pension estimates, and real crash sequences including the Great Depression, the 1973 oil shock, the dot-com collapse, and the 2008 GFC.
Run Your Monte Carlo SimulationWhat this calculator shows you
A simple retirement calculator tells you one number: how long your money lasts at an assumed average return. A Monte Carlo simulation tells you the full picture.
Why sequence of returns risk matters for Australians
Retiring in 2000 and retiring in 2003 look similar on paper. In practice, they were very different experiences. Someone who retired in early 2000 faced three consecutive years of negative equity returns while drawing down. Their portfolio was structurally impaired before markets recovered.
A Monte Carlo simulation models this explicitly. The calculator runs your retirement across every historical starting year available, including the worst: 1929, 1937, 1965, 1973, and 2000.
Best 10% of scenarios
Strong early returns, portfolio grows while you draw. Often leaves a large estate. Not a plan to rely on.
Median scenario
Roughly average market conditions. This is the number most calculators show. It hides the real risk.
Worst 10% of scenarios
Bad returns in years 1-5 of retirement. This is the scenario your plan needs to survive, not the median.
How this Monte Carlo simulation works
The SuperCalc Pro engine uses two complementary approaches:
Historical backtesting
Your retirement plan is run starting from every year between 1928 and 2025. This uses actual annual return sequences, including the crashes, recoveries, and inflation spikes that occurred in Australian and US markets. No assumptions, just real history.
Monte Carlo simulation
Random return sequences are generated by sampling from the statistical properties of historical data, producing many thousands of plausible futures not identical to any historical period. This catches tail risks that backtesting alone misses if the worst historical sequence has not occurred yet.
Both methods are shown together, giving you a more complete picture of retirement risk than either method provides alone.
Monte Carlo vs standard calculator: what you actually get
| Feature | Standard calculator | Monte Carlo (this tool) |
|---|---|---|
| Probability of success | No | Yes |
| Sequence of returns risk | No | Yes |
| Worst-case income estimate | No | Yes |
| Historical crash sequences | No | Yes (1928-2025) |
| Age Pension integration | Rarely | Yes |
| Withdrawal strategy comparison | No | Fixed, guardrails, dynamic |
| Single average return assumed | Yes | No (full distribution) |
Run the simulation
Enter your super balance, expected retirement age, desired income, and asset allocation. The calculator produces a probability distribution of outcomes, including your worst-case and median income across thousands of simulated paths.
Open the Monte Carlo Retirement Simulator
Launch the CalculatorFree to use. No account required for basic simulation.
Frequently asked questions
- What is a Monte Carlo retirement simulation?
- A Monte Carlo simulation generates thousands of possible future return sequences by randomly sampling from historical data or statistical distributions. For retirement planning it shows you the probability your savings last your full retirement period across many potential market scenarios, not just one average forecast.
- How is this different from a standard retirement calculator?
- A standard calculator uses a single average return assumption, which hides the risk that bad returns early in retirement can permanently damage a portfolio. Monte Carlo shows a full range of outcomes, including the worst 10% of scenarios that a simple average would never reveal.
- Does this calculator account for Australian super and Age Pension?
- Yes. The engine includes Australian super accumulation and pension phase drawdown rules, and Age Pension income and asset test estimates based on current Centrelink rates updated each financial year.
- What does a 90% probability of success mean?
- It means that in 90 out of 100 simulated retirement paths, your money lasted your full intended retirement period. It does not guarantee a real-world outcome, but it tells you how much cushion your plan has against poor market sequences.
- What safe withdrawal rate does this calculator use?
- The calculator lets you choose: fixed dollar withdrawals, fixed percentage withdrawals, or dynamic guardrails strategies. You can also test the impact of the classic 4% rule on Australian data and see whether it holds in Australian market conditions.
- Is this free to use?
- The basic simulation is free. Advanced features including detailed SMSF modelling, couple scenarios, and full historical report exports are available in the SuperCalc Pro subscription.
- Is this financial advice?
- No. This tool is for education and modelling only. SuperCalc Pro does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence and does not provide personal financial advice. Use these results to prepare for a conversation with a licensed financial adviser.