Retirement Income Projection Calculator Australia

Project retirement income from super, Age Pension, investments, and other sources using historical backtesting and Monte Carlo pathways.

Comprehensive Income Projection

Retirement income comes from multiple sources. This calculator integrates everything: super drawdowns, Age Pension means testing, investment income, annuities, and other sources.

Income Sources Included

  • Superannuation: Account-based pensions with flexible withdrawals
  • Age Pension: Means-tested with asset and income tests
  • Investment income: Dividends, rental income, interest
  • Annuities: Guaranteed income streams
  • Defined benefit pensions: Government or employer pensions
  • Part-time work: Phased retirement income

How Age Pension Interacts

Age Pension is means-tested. As your assets decline through retirement, your pension eligibility increases. This creates a safety net; you can't run out of income because Age Pension fills the gap.

The calculator models this interaction accurately, showing how total income changes as super decreases and Age Pension increases.

Monte Carlo vs Historical

The calculator offers two approaches:

Historical backtesting: Uses actual market returns from 1928-2025. Shows what would have happened if you retired in any specific year, including market crashes and booms.

Monte Carlo simulation: Runs 1000+ scenarios with random returns based on historical statistics. Shows probability distribution of outcomes.

Both methods are valuable. Historical shows real events, Monte Carlo shows the range of possibilities.

Uncertainty and Risk

No projection is certain. Future returns, inflation, life expectancy, and government policy all affect outcomes. This calculator shows a range: best case, worst case, and most likely scenarios.

The goal isn't perfect accuracy; it's understanding risk and making informed decisions.

Project Your Retirement Income

Desired income (will be adjusted for inflation)

Expected annual return on investments

Expected annual inflation

Want Monte Carlo analysis? Try the full calculator

Project Your Retirement Income

Model your complete income from all sources across 30+ years with Monte Carlo simulation and Age Pension integration.

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Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are retirement income projections?
No projection is perfectly accurate because future returns are unknown. However, using historical backtesting (97 years of real data) and Monte Carlo simulation (1000+ scenarios) provides a realistic range of outcomes. The calculator shows best case, worst case, and most likely scenarios.
What's the difference between Monte Carlo and historical backtesting?
Historical backtesting uses actual market returns from 1928-2025. Monte Carlo uses random returns based on historical statistics. Historical shows 'what happened', Monte Carlo shows 'what could happen'. Both are valuable for understanding retirement income risk.
How does Age Pension affect my retirement income?
Age Pension provides a safety net that increases as your assets decline. The means tests (asset and income) reduce your pension as your wealth increases. This creates a complex interaction; spending down super can increase your total income by boosting Age Pension eligibility.
What income sources should I include in my projection?
Include all sources: superannuation withdrawals, Age Pension, investment income (dividends, rent), annuities, part-time work, defined benefit pensions, and any other regular income. The calculator integrates Age Pension means testing automatically.

Disclaimer: This calculator is for informational purposes only and does NOT constitute financial advice. SuperCalc Pro Pty Ltd does not hold an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL). Always consult a licensed financial adviser for advice specific to your circumstances.